Abstract:
A deterministic model is designed and used to theoretically assess
the impact of antiviral drugs in controlling the spread of the 2009 swine influenza
pandemic. In particular, the model considers the administration of the
antivirals both as a preventive as well as a therapeutic agent. Rigorous analysis
of the model reveals that its disease-free equilibrium is globally-asymptotically
stable under certain conditions involving having the associated reproduction
number less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium
if the reproduction threshold exceeds unity. The model provides a
reasonable fit to the observed H1N1 pandemic data for the Canadian province
of Manitoba. Numerical simulations of the model suggest that the singular
use of antivirals as preventive agents only makes a limited population-level
impact in reducing the burden of the disease in the population (except if the
effectiveness level of this “prevention-only” strategy is high). On the other
hand, the combined use of the antivirals (both as preventive and therapeutic
agents) resulted in a dramatic reduction in disease burden. Based on the
parameter values used in these simulations, even a moderately-effective combined
treatment-prevention antiviral strategy will be sufficient to eliminate the
H1N1 pandemic from the province.
