Modelling of uncertainty in minimising the cost of inventory for disaster relief

Abstract

Natural disasters - and even those caused by people - are largely unpredictable. So disasters need to be researched and their impact fully understood, so that the aid supplies required to ensure survival during and after disaster events will be available. The member states of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are the countries of interest for this paper, as insufficient research has been conducted into inventory pre-positioning for disaster response in these countries. It is vital to anticipate the needs of disaster victims in potential disasters. These needs are evaluated according to the types and amounts of aid supplies required. This paper proposes a stochastic inventory model that can be applied in a generic way to any SADC country, providing a means to improve disaster preparedness through keeping aid supplies in pre-positioned facilities in the SADC region, at reasonable and affordable cost.

Natuurlike en mensgemaakte rampe is grootliks onvoorspelbaar. Gevolglik moet rampe nagevors en hul impak ten volle begryp word, sodat noodvoorrade wat benodig word vir oorlewing doeltreffend beplan kan word vir aanwending tydens en na rampgebeure. Die lede van die Suid-Afrikaanse Ontwikkelingsgemeenskap (SAOG) is die lande van belang vir hierdie artikel omrede navorsing oor voorraadhouding vir rampreaksie in hierdie betrokke lande tot nog toe onvoldoende was. Dit is noodsaaklik om doeltreffend in die behoeftes van rampslagoffers te voorsien. Hierdie behoeftes word beoordeel na aanleiding van die aard en hoeveelhede van noodvoorrade wat benodig mag word in ramptoestande. Hierdie artikel stel 'n stochastiese voorraadmodel voor vir toepassing op 'n generiese wyse in enige SAOG land, om sodoende 'n metode te verskaf om rampvoorbereiding te verbeter deur die opgaar van noodvoorrade in vooraf-geïdentifiseerde fasiliteite binne die SAOG, teen redelike en bekostigbare koste.