Abstract:
The report defines the project aim as follows: develop a demand forecast for tuberculosis treatment medicine in South Africa based on mortality and infection rates from 2010 to 2020 and evaluate the current production process and make possible recommendations to meet this demand. The project aim will be achieved by using statistical methods for forecasting and simulation techniques for optimisation.
Production planning represents the master plan to achieve an efficient production system. It incorporates a variety of elements with the purpose of realising accurate delivery times to the customer. With an effective production plan the manufacturing process has the ability to reach its full potential.
In 2009 Sanofi-Aventis was awarded the government contract to be the sole supplier of tuberculosis treatment medication in South Africa. The prevalence of TB in South Africa is undeniably growing when one evaluates the mortality statistics for the last few years and as the HIV infection rate increases so too does the TB rate. It is with this knowledge that one has the responsibility and obligation to provide the people of South Africa with the necessary access to the treatment that is needed to regain health. This reflects the importance of being the sole provider of this potentially life-saving drug. It is therefore imperative that the production of this drug is running at its most efficient level because bottlenecks could not only cost money, it could potentially cost lives.
The demand forecast shows an upward trend from 5 million patients in 2010 to upwards of 7.5 million patients in 2020 with an average growth rate of 300 000 new patients needing treatment every year. The production simulation reveals that the production system is operating under capacity and cannot meet the demand for Rifafour e-275 treatment medication.
