This paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) for forecasting inventory investment. The model is estimated using South African quarterly data on actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price level and interest rate, for the period 1978 to 2000. The out-of-sample-forecast accuracy obtained from the BVECM over the forecasting horizon of 2001:1 to 2003:4, is compared with those generated from the classical variant of the Vector Autoregresssive (VAR) model and the VECM, the Bayesian VAR, and the recently developed ECM by Smith et al., for the South African economy. The BVECM with the most-tight prior outperforms all the other models, except for a relatively tight BVAR which also correctly predicts the direction of change of inventory investment over the period of 2004:1 to 2006:3.
Gupta, Rangan(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-02)
This paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) for
forecasting inventory investment in South Africa. The model is estimated using
quarterly data on actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price ...
Segnon, Mawuli; Gupta, Rangan; Bekiros, Stelios; Wohar, Mark E.(Wiley, 2018-08)
A large number of models have been developed in the literature to analyze and forecast changes in output dynamics. The objective of this paper was to compare the predictive ability of univariate and bivariate models, in ...
Poolman, Eugene Rene(University of Pretoria, 2015)
The development of the Severe Weather Impact Forecasting System (SWIFS) for flash flood
hazards in South Africa is described in this thesis. Impact forecasting addresses the need to
move from forecasting weather conditions ...