Paper presented at the 28th Annual Southern African Transport Conference 6 - 9 July 2009 "Sustainable Transport", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.
An optimal smoothing algorithm is developed and applied to Moving SA (Johannesburg) data. Non-Linear regression is applied successfully to the Moving SA data. Values of 437.4 for saturation (vehicleslk.capita), 0.04569 for growth parameter (per annum frequency), and 1979.77 (years) for point of maximum growth are obtained. A correlation of +0.9647 with the raw data was achieved. The soundness of the statistical inference is demonstrated by showing the bias and trend of the model error term to be statistically indistinguishable from zero. Inner bounds on the confidence intervals for small sample non-linear regression are constructed for the predicted values.
This paper was transferred from the original CD ROM created for this conference. The material was published using Adobe Acrobat 8.0 Technology.
The original CD ROM was produced by Document Transformation Technologies Postal Address: PO Box 560 Irene 0062 South Africa. Tel.: +27 12 667 2074 Fax: +27 12 667 2766 E-mail: nigel@doctech URL: http://www.doctech.co.za