Improving project schedule estimates using historical data and simulation

Abstract

Many projects are not completed on time or within the original budget. This is caused by uncertainty in project variables as well as the occurrence of risk events. A study was done to determine ways of measuring the risk in development projects executed by a mining company in South Africa. The main objective of the study was to determine whether historical project data would provide a more accurate means of estimating the total project duration. Original estimates and actual completion times for tasks of a number of projects were analysed and compared. The results of the study indicated that a more accurate total duration for a project could be obtained by making use of historical project data. The accuracy of estimates could be improved further by building a comprehensive project schedule database within a specific industry.

Verskeie projekte word nie binne die oorspronklike skedule of begroting voltooi nie. Dit word dikwels veroorsaak deur onsekerheid oor projekveranderlikes en die voorkoms van risiko’s. 'n Studie is gedoen om 'n metode te ontwikkel om risiko te meet vir ontwikkelingsprojekte van 'n mynmaatskappy in Suid Afrika. Die hoofdoel van die studie was om te bepaal of historiese projekdata gebruik kon word om 'n akkurater tydsduur vir 'n projek te beraam. Die geraamde tydsduur van take vir 'n aantal projekte is ontleed en vergelyk met die werklike tydsduur. Die resultate van die studie het getoon dat 'n akkurater totale tydsduur vir die projek verkry kon word deur gebruik te maak van historiese projekdata. Die akkuraatheid kan verder verbeter word deur 'n databasis van projekskedules vir 'n bepaalde industrie te ontwikkel en by die datum te hou.