Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Segnon, Mawuli K.
(Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 2016-11)
This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching ...