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Climate change in South African rivers : a case study on the Olifants River in the Kruger National Park
Adlam, Amanda Laura; Chimimba, Christian Timothy; Retief, D.C. Hugo; Woodborne, Stephan M. (Academy of Science of South Africa, 2026-03)
Freshwater systems are among the most endangered ecosystems, with anthropogenic climate change causing detrimental ecological and economic impacts. Due to climate change, increased air temperatures will translate into the warming of rivers, and at the same time will alter flow regimes and increase evaporation and stochastic events. In this study, we used validated statistical water temperature models that predict average water temperatures (WTavg) from air temperature to project monthly and daily WTavg from 2025 to 2100 CE in the heavily polluted and over-abstracted Olifants River, Kruger National Park, Limpopo Province, South Africa, under the ‘business as usual’ Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. The results from 16 General Circulation Models showed that monthly WTavg is likely to increase by 3.6 °C and showed summer months reaching up to 34–35 °C by 2100 CE. The daily results showed a similar increase of 3.7 °C by 2100 CE, with some extreme days reaching 42–44 °C. These results support similar research conducted within the Olifants catchment of the Limpopo Basin and add to the limited knowledge of freshwater climate change, especially in Africa. Climate change will ultimately alter the thermal and physical landscape of the Olifants River and this forecast highlights the need for further research on the potential detrimental consequences on freshwater biota, including possible local extinctions. SIGNIFICANCE • Increasing air temperature due to anthropogenic climate change will cause water temperatures to rise. • Statistical models can be used to predict future water temperatures from air temperature. • The projections show an increase in monthly average water temperature (WTavg) of 3.6 °C and an increase in daily WTavg of 3.7 °C by the end of the 21st century. • This drastic rise in water temperatures will ultimately have negative effects on freshwater biota.
Determination of South African carbon dioxide emission factors for selected solid fuels
Kornelius, Gerrit; Forbes, Patricia B.C.; Garland, Rebecca M. (Academy of Science of South Africa, 2026-03-26)
South Africa’s National Climate Change Response Policy requires accurate reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To achieve this, the South African Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment initiated a process to develop country-specific emission factors (referred to as Tier 2 factors by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)) for fuels produced or used locally, which are more accurate than those currently used (Tier 1). In this work, we report on the development of such county-specific emission factors for the solid fuels most commonly produced and used in South Africa, based on the analysis of 107 samples. The samples received were classified into types based on the IPCC fuel classification method, which has some differences from that used in South Africa. The CO2 emission factor for sub-bituminous coal, mainly used for power generation and in the liquid fuels/chemical sectors of South Africa, was found to be 97 807 kg CO2/TJ. For ‘other bituminous coal’, the CO2 emission factor was found to be 101 171 kg CO2/TJ. These emission factors are higher than the IPCC default (also referred to as Tier 1) factors, which have been in use in South Africa to date. As solid fossil fuel use is a major contributor to South Africa’s GHG emissions, this implies higher than previously estimated CO2 emissions from this sector as well as a higher contribution to global emissions. SIGNIFICANCE: • South African Tier 2 carbon dioxide emission factors for solid fuel use are reported for the first time, as required by South Africa’s commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Climate Agreement. • The Tier 2 carbon dioxide emission factors were derived from the analysis of over 100 South African solid fuel samples. • Emission factors for the fuels used in the largest amounts are higher than the default Tier 1 factors previously used, leading to an increase in reported emissions for a similar fuel use. • The main user of coal in South Africa, the power generation sector, uses sub-bituminous coal based on the IPCC classification system, which includes volatile matter as a classification criterion. • Using the same IPCC criteria, the majority of samples from other South African industrial and commercial users are classified as ‘other bituminous coal’.
Longitudinal analysis of the risk factors for onset and change in tinnitus in the Busselton Healthy Ageing Study
Fuchten, Denise; Stegeman, Inge; Mao, Yinan; Eikelboom, Robert H.; Hunter, Michael L.; Smit, Adriana L. (Public Library of Science, 2026-01)
INTRODUCTION : Effective prevention and intervention strategies for tinnitus rely on identifying risk factors and understanding its progression over time. However, longitudinal data on these aspects are limited. This study therefore aimed to (1) assess the incidence of tinnitus and identify risk factors associated with tinnitus development, and (2) assess the impact of tinnitus and change in impact over time and identify factors associated with this change. METHODS : Data from the Busselton Healthy Ageing Study, a population-based cohort of individuals born between 1946–1964, were used. Information on tinnitus presence and impact, general health, ear-related health and mental health was collected from 3863 participants through questionnaires and physical measurements at two time points with a six-year interval. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine risk factors for tinnitus development. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to examine factors associated with changes in impact. RESULTS : The 6-year incidence of tinnitus was 12.1%. Statistically significant risk factors for developing tinnitus included male gender, higher BMI, larger waist circumference, fair subjective health, hearing loss, occupational noise exposure with occasional use of hearing protection, hyperacusis, migraine, and diagnosed anxiety disorder. Among participants with pre-existing tinnitus, 21.4% reported an increase in tinnitus impact over time, while 16.5% experienced a decrease. Changes in impact were influenced by general health and ear-related health factors. CONCLUSION : The high incidence of tinnitus and its notable impact on daily life emphasize the importance of gaining a better understanding of the broad range of identified risk factors for developing tinnitus and change in impact. The multifaceted nature of these factors, comprising hearing-related issues, general health conditions and psychological aspects, underscore the complexity of tinnitus etiology and impact. By gaining more insight into these factors, we can inform future research efforts aimed at developing targeted prevention and intervention strategies tailored to specific demographic groups.
Locally relevant, ethically urgent : defending SASOP’s stance on transgender and non-binary youth
Dunkle, K.L.; Lynch, Ingrid; Msweli, Sakhile; Addinall-van Straaten, Ronald; Brouard, Pierre W.; De Beer-Procter, Jenna-Lee; Madlala, Nkanyiso; McLachlan, Chris; Muller, Madeleine; Pickstone-Taylor, Simon; Pillay, Mershen; Spitaels, Ariane; Tomson, Anastacia; De Vries, Elma (AOSIS, 2026-01-23)
No abstract available.
Living labs and building testing labs : enabling climate change adaptation
Hugo, Jan; Farhadian, Maryam (Ubiquity Press, 2026-01-30)
Climate action requires rapid, evidence-based and locally appropriate adaptation measures. Effective responses in the built environment depend on integrated, multilevel solutions developed through inter- and transdisciplinary collaboration. Long-term, effective adaptation must fulfil five key criteria: contextual fitness, capacity for local implementation, systemic transformation, future-oriented planning and flexibility to avoid maladaptation. This study applies this analytical framework derived from climate adaptation theory to observational analyses and expert interviews to examine how building technology laboratories (BTLs) and living labs (LLs) facilitate systemic and context-specific adaptation in the built environment. By analysing purposely selected research institutions, the study conveys the potential of these laboratories to drive transformational climate change adaptation. These findings are discussed in relation to their relevance for resource-constrained regions. The cross-case study analysis of selected research facilities can inform the establishment of similar facilities in the Southern Africa region, contributing to climate adaptation research, enhancing local adaptive capacity and promoting long-term regional resilience. POLICY RELEVANCE In the context of a rapidly changing climate, practitioners and policymakers must act decisively to implement effective built environment-related climate adaptation measures, BTLs and LLs. Based on seven case studies, key adaptation criteria (contextual relevance, local feasibility, systemic transformation, future-oriented planning and flexibility) are used to assess how BTLs and LLs contribute to systemic and context-specific climate adaptation. Transferable lessons from these laboratories are identified and their potential application is discussed for resource-constrained settings. These insights are contextualised for Southern Africa, advocating the implementation of laboratories to enhance local research and development capacity, inform practical interventions and strengthen long-term regional resilience to climate change.