A web of factors and dependencies to consider in the electrification of South Africa's minibus taxi industry

Abstract

South Africa’s minibus taxis operate fundamentally differently to formalised and structured public transport. The informal, demand-driven industry has grown into the constraints of passenger demand, accessibility, and affordability of the lower-income group it tends to serve, and it has become the main mode of transport for millions of South Africans. The slow adoption of electric vehicles into South Africa's automotive industry presents environmental and economic concerns. The transport industry emits high amounts of carbon, and the automotive industry is completely reliant on producing internal combustion engine vehicles which will eventually be phased out by the country's biggest international customers. Efforts towards electrification must prioritise minibus taxis due to their importance to local paratransit. However, this is a complex endeavour. Electrification will inevitably introduce many challenges through a complex web of factors and dependencies, ranging from mobility and charging operations to environmental impacts and vehicle characteristics. This paper identifies and analyses these factors and dependencies and describes some of the key considerations required to ensure a successful paratransit transition to electric mobility. The paper concludes that although the complexity of economic, environmental, and energy-based aspects is unpacked, there are additional factors such as road safety and other social considerations that are required for more holistic electric mobility planning. All these factors must be considered as parts of a larger ecosystem of electrification instead of as individual problems.