Abstract:
Upskilling our ability to quantify urban traveller trip preferences and behaviour and
incorporating these findings into urban transport policy development at all levels of
government is a key requirement for successful transport project conceptualisation,
planning, design, implementation, and evaluation. Transport planners and economists in
South Africa have historically had limited insight into the trip making behaviour of urban
and inter-urban travellers by means of their stated and / or revealed journey preferences.
A consequence has been deficient transport project conceptualisation, design and
operations planning for both public transport and roads schemes. The resulting adverse
financial implications have been substantial and are enduring. Strategic urban
transportation demand models that are used to provide scheme demand and revenue
forecasts have developed the unenviable reputation of providing estimates that are far in
excess of what has actually materialised, in large part due to inadequate mode and route
choice behavioural modelling. The economic appraisals for urban transport projects, when
undertaken, have not been transparent, and the provenance of key micro-economic
measures such as the work and non-work related values of travel time (VTT) are
uncertain. Transportation demand models cannot produce reliable demand forecasts
without robust estimates of the value of travel time and cater for its heterogeneity with
appropriate traveller market segmentation. Mode choice models themselves require
careful design and a high degree of insight into trip making behaviour and user
preferences and cannot forecast reliable mode shares without this. Using evidence from
transport project case studies and recent research initiatives this paper demonstrates the
importance and value for money proposition of upskilling our ability to quantify traveller
preferences and incorporate these findings into urban transport policy, project design and
operations, and transportation demand models.
