Dynamics of an extreme low temperature event over South Africa amid a warming climate

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dc.contributor.author Chikoore, Hector
dc.contributor.author Mbokodo, Innocent L.
dc.contributor.author Singo, Mukovhe V.
dc.contributor.author Mohomi, Tumelo
dc.contributor.author Munyai, Rendani B.
dc.contributor.author Havenga, Henno
dc.contributor.author Mahlobo, Dawn
dc.contributor.author Engelbrecht, Francois A.
dc.contributor.author Bopape, Mary-Jane Morongwa
dc.contributor.author Ndarana, Thando
dc.date.accessioned 2024-10-15T12:57:06Z
dc.date.available 2024-10-15T12:57:06Z
dc.date.issued 2024-06
dc.description DATA AVAILABILITY : The authors do not have permission to share data. en_US
dc.description.abstract Despite robust warming trends in surface air temperatures over southern Africa, extreme low temperature (ELT) events still occur from time to time. A recent ELT event affected South Africa resulting in disruptions in socio-economic activities amid a coronavirus pandemic. At least 27 long-term low temperature records were broken during 22–24 July 2021, with snow falls observed mostly over high ground in subtropical districts. This study employs weather station data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalyses to investigate dynamics of the ELT event focusing on the South African Highveld. Our approach employs multiscale analysis, with long term trends and climatologies of surface air temperatures, snow events and ground frost days presented as background to understanding the observed extreme weather anomalies. We found consistent and statistically significant warming trends in daytime and overnight temperatures, with corresponding decreases in ground frosts. The July 2021 ELT event resulted from a combination of complex circulation anomalies which included an intense offshore cut-off low (COL) that extended to the surface (and associated wave breaking), a cold front and a Type-S ridging anticyclone, all intensifying surface cold air advection from the Southern Ocean. A most significant finding is that COLs do not need to enter South Africa to cause severe weather over the country. Our study contributes to understanding the occurrence and dynamics of cold extremes in subtropical regions, against a robust warming trend. en_US
dc.description.department Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology en_US
dc.description.librarian hj2024 en_US
dc.description.sdg SDG-13:Climate action en_US
dc.description.uri https://www.elsevier.com/locate/wace en_US
dc.identifier.citation Chikoore, H., Mbokodo, I.L., Singo, M.V. et al. 2024, 'Dynamics of an extreme low temperature event over South Africa amid a warming climate', Weather and Climate Extremes, vol. 44, art. 100668, pp. 1-17, doi : 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100668. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 2212-0947 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100668
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/98605
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Elsevier en_US
dc.rights © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by- nc/4.0/). en_US
dc.subject Extreme low temperature events en_US
dc.subject Snow falls en_US
dc.subject Ground frost en_US
dc.subject Cut-off low (COL) en_US
dc.subject Wave-breaking event en_US
dc.subject Intense cold front en_US
dc.subject Ridging anticyclone en_US
dc.subject Jet streak en_US
dc.subject SDG-13: Climate action en_US
dc.subject Extreme low temperature (ELT) en_US
dc.title Dynamics of an extreme low temperature event over South Africa amid a warming climate en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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