Second to none: Second cities and next cities as Africa's engine of prosperity

Abstract

Cities are already the locus of 80% of global GDP and home to more than half of the world’s population. Further, the United Nations (UN) anticipates that the world’s urban population will grow to 6.7 billion in 2050 from a base of just 4.2 billion in 2018, with close to 90% of this increase taking place in Asia and Africa. This means populations across major cities will grow at unprecedented rates. But it is not just capitals and megacities that face great challenges and opportunities. Often overshadowed by their more renowned counterparts, the multitude of smaller cities are poised to play a critical role in the unfolding demographic shift. Second cities provide a cultural and economic bridge between rural areas and big cities. They are often levers for regional and global trade. In the African context, the narrative of urbanisation is rapidly evolving, with second cities emerging as dynamic hubs of innovation, opportunity, and resilience. Africa’s second cities embody a rich tapestry of diversity, reflecting the continent’s multifaceted identity and historical legacy. From vital logistics and shipping hubs like Mozambique’s Beira, to the academic centre that is Rabat in Morocco, to the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s mining fulcrum of Lubumbashi and the tourism gem in South Africa’s crown that is Cape Town, second cities take a multitude of forms, while sharing important traits. In partnership with the GIBS Centre for African Management and Markets (CAMM), DHL Express SSA has embarked on this research paper to understand the complexities of and opportunities that lie in these urban centres across sub-Saharan Africa. The paper captures the unique potential for Africa’s second cities to take advantage of the so-called demographic dividend and generate prosperity for the continent. This paper rounds out with a selection of evidence-based approaches that business leaders and policymakers can wield to address the challenges that second cities face and, indeed, FOREWORD leverage powerful demographic, social and economic forces to build a better continent for tomorrow. I extend my sincere appreciation to the authors of this research paper for their dedication, insight, and scholarly rigour. Their work represents a significant contribution to our understanding of Africa’s urban landscape, laying the groundwork for further analysis and action. This paper is designed to open dialogue, collaboration, and positive change, inspiring us to unlock the full potential of Africa’s second cities.