A critical analysis of the US-China geopolitical contest in the Indo-Pacific region : implications for Africa's regional inclusion

Abstract

The Indo-Pacific region holds significant and strategic geopolitical importance in the 21st century. It is in the region that the US-China strategic contest is prevalent, driven by economic, security, and geopolitical interests. This strategic contest implicates Africa, fostering strategic synergies in the broader Indo-Pacific. Although the US-China rivalry is the centrepiece of the geopolitical discourses of the Indo-Pacific, other major powers such as Australia, India, Japan, and ASEAN also influence regional dynamics. It is for this reason that the strategic US-China rivalry implicates regional members who also contest for power and influence in the broader Indo-Pacific with the extension of synergies with the African littoral nations in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This study provides a critical analysis of the US-China geopolitical contest in the Indo-Pacific region and its implications for Africa’s regional inclusion. It argues that African littoral nations of the IOR are largely excluded in the regional framework and discourses of the Indo-Pacific. Also, the continent is marginalized in the Indo-Pacific strategic visions and conceptions of key stakeholders such as the United States and Australia whose regional construct excludes the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region while the Association of Southeast Asia (ASEAN) has an ambiguous construct of the Indo-Pacific. This geopolitical exclusion implies that Africa is left out of the strategic forums and initiatives of the Indo-Pacific such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ASEAN-ARF) and the United States Indo-Pacific Command (US-INDOPACOM). Through the use of a qualitative methodology and content analysis technique, the study examined this geopolitical exclusion and explored strategic opportunities for Africa’s regional inclusion. This is done within tenets of the theory of new regionalism which the study adopted as a theoretical framework of its critical analysis to explain Africa’s geopolitical exclusion in the Indo-Pacific region. New regionalism theory argues for regional multilateralism and aims to create non-hegemonic regions while supporting international cooperation. The analysis of the study, however, shows that Africa lacks a clear policy focus and a common position in response to the growing significance and synergies within the broader Indo-Pacific. Secondly, the US-China strategic contest in the Indo-Pacific region and Africa serves as a strategic pathway for the inclusion of the continent in the region; regional members such as India and Japan also play a crucial role in Africa’s inclusion in the region. Concluding that Africa’s regional inclusion in the Indo-Pacific presents economic, security, and geopolitical opportunities for the continent that cannot be ignored, the study recommends, amongst others, that Africa develops an Indo-Pacific Outlook/Strategy guided by the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA)-Indo-Pacific Outlook (IPO) which includes the Eastern and Southern African littoral nations as geographic parts of the Indo-Pacific. The IPO should also guide the revision of America and Australia’s Indo-Pacific visions to include Africa to the fore.