Realized stock-market volatility of the United States and the presidential approval rating

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dc.contributor.author Gupta, Rangan
dc.contributor.author Jaichand, Yuvana
dc.contributor.author Pierdzioch, Christian
dc.contributor.author Van Eyden, Renee
dc.date.accessioned 2024-05-31T04:29:42Z
dc.date.available 2024-05-31T04:29:42Z
dc.date.issued 2023-07
dc.description DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: Data will be made available upon request. en_US
dc.description.abstract Studying the question of whether macroeconomic predictors play a role in forecasting stock-market volatility has a long and significant tradition in the empirical finance literature. We went beyond the earlier literature in that we studied whether the presidential approval rating can be used as a single-variable substitute in place of standard macroeconomic predictors when forecasting stock-market volatility in the United States (US). Political-economy considerations imply that the presidential approval rating should reflect fluctuations in macroeconomic predictors and, hence, may absorb or even improve on the predictive value for stock-market volatility of the latter. We studied whether the presidential approval rating has predictive value out-of-sample for realized stock-market volatility and, if so, which types of investors benefit from using it. en_US
dc.description.department Economics en_US
dc.description.sdg SDG-08:Decent work and economic growth en_US
dc.description.uri https://www.mdpi.com/journal/mathematics en_US
dc.identifier.citation Gupta, R.; Jaichand, Y.; Pierdzioch, C.; van Eyden, R. Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating. Mathematics 2023, 11, 2964. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11132964. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 2227-7390 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.3390/math11132964
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/96312
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher MDPI en_US
dc.rights © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license. en_US
dc.subject Stock-market volatility en_US
dc.subject Macroeconomic predictors en_US
dc.subject Presidential approval rating en_US
dc.subject Forecasting en_US
dc.subject SDG-08: Decent work and economic growth en_US
dc.title Realized stock-market volatility of the United States and the presidential approval rating en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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