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dc.contributor.author | Gupta, Rangan![]() |
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dc.contributor.author | Jaichand, Yuvana![]() |
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dc.contributor.author | Pierdzioch, Christian![]() |
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dc.contributor.author | Van Eyden, Renee![]() |
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dc.date.accessioned | 2024-05-31T04:29:42Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-05-31T04:29:42Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-07 | |
dc.description | DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: Data will be made available upon request. | en_US |
dc.description.abstract | Studying the question of whether macroeconomic predictors play a role in forecasting stock-market volatility has a long and significant tradition in the empirical finance literature. We went beyond the earlier literature in that we studied whether the presidential approval rating can be used as a single-variable substitute in place of standard macroeconomic predictors when forecasting stock-market volatility in the United States (US). Political-economy considerations imply that the presidential approval rating should reflect fluctuations in macroeconomic predictors and, hence, may absorb or even improve on the predictive value for stock-market volatility of the latter. We studied whether the presidential approval rating has predictive value out-of-sample for realized stock-market volatility and, if so, which types of investors benefit from using it. | en_US |
dc.description.department | Economics | en_US |
dc.description.sdg | SDG-08:Decent work and economic growth | en_US |
dc.description.uri | https://www.mdpi.com/journal/mathematics | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | Gupta, R.; Jaichand, Y.; Pierdzioch, C.; van Eyden, R. Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating. Mathematics 2023, 11, 2964. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11132964. | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 2227-7390 (online) | |
dc.identifier.other | 10.3390/math11132964 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/96312 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.publisher | MDPI | en_US |
dc.rights | © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license. | en_US |
dc.subject | Stock-market volatility | en_US |
dc.subject | Macroeconomic predictors | en_US |
dc.subject | Presidential approval rating | en_US |
dc.subject | Forecasting | en_US |
dc.subject | SDG-08: Decent work and economic growth | en_US |
dc.title | Realized stock-market volatility of the United States and the presidential approval rating | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |