System dynamics modelling of the water-energy nexus in South Africa : a case of the Inkomati-Usuthu water management area

Abstract

The energy demand in African economies, including South Africa, is expected to double by 2040. The water-energy-food nexus, introduced at the Bonn 2011 conference, illustrates the interdependencies of these resources. In the case of South Africa, with its semi-arid climate and frequent power outages, this study focuses on the water-energy nexus. Water is necessary for electricity generation in coal-powered plants, while energy is required for water supply. Using system dynamics, the study models the current state of the nexus in South Africa and explores future scenarios considering population growth, GDP per capita, and water and energy intensities. The findings serve as a basis for discussing the country’s allocation of scarce water and energy resources. Further research could examine South Africa’s potential investment in renewable energy resources to solve the increasing energy demand.

Die energievraag in Afrika-ekonomieë, insluitend Suid-Afrika, sal na verwagting teen 2040 verdubbel. Die water-energie-voedsel-nexus, wat by die Bonn 2011-konferensie bekendgestel is, illustreer die interafhanklikheid van hierdie hulpbronne. In die geval van Suid-Afrika, met sy semi-droë klimaat en gereelde kragonderbrekings, het hierdie studie gefokus op die water-energie-nexus. Water is nodig vir elektrisiteitsopwekking in steenkoolaangedrewe aanlegte, terwyl energie benodig word vir watervoorsiening. Deur sisteemdinamika te gebruik, het die studie die huidige stand van die nexus in Suid-Afrika gemodelleer, en toekomstige scenario's ondersoek wat bevolkingsgroei, BBP per capita en water- en energie-intensiteite in ag neem. Die bevindinge dien as 'n basis vir die bespreking van die land se toekenning van skaars water- en energiebronne. Verdere navorsing kan Suid-Afrika se potensiële belegging in hernubare energiebronne ondersoek om die toenemende energievraag op te los.