National interest as a determinant of stability in the Eastern Mediterranean Sub-Regional security complex

Abstract

This study explores the question of if and how the protection and promotion of the national interests of two states in a regional security subcomplex affects the stability of the subcomplex itself. The specific case this study utilises is Greek and Turkish relations in the Eastern Mediterranean regional security subcomplex, where both states make up a security complex within the larger RSC of the Eastern Mediterranean. This study considers their relationship by providing historical context to their current political dynamic, coupled with a catalysing element of conflict in the race towards finding hydrocarbon reserves in the region between 2011 and 2021. To answer the research question, this study utilises three primary theoretical frameworks; firstly, Nuechterlein’s National Interests framework in tandem with Bengtsson’s Logic of Interfaces, aid in identifying identify the national interests of both states and the ways in which each state protects and pursues them. Secondly, this study utilises recognition theory in the Logic of Interface to determine the patterns of amity and enmity between the states, alongside the institutions established to mitigate and de-escalate conflict, in order to frame the sub-RSC on the amity/enmity spectrum, as defined by Oskanian. Lastly, this study considers how changes in behaviours of states could potentially affect the stability of the sub-RSC by identifying how much escalation is tolerated before shifting more towards revisionist conflict formations on the amity/enmity spectrum. In the context of this case study, it is determined that this RSC falls between status-quo conflict formations and thin security regimes on the amity-enmity spectrum. In this regard, the risk appetite for conflict in this RSC is broad, due to persistently fluctuating patterns of amity and enmity. However, this RSC has managed to effectively utilise conflict mitigating strategies and security-normalising institutions in order to maintain its position on the amity/enmity spectrum and avoid the collapse of security regimes, altogether ensuring some semblance of stability.