Geocoded analysis of the determinants of socio-political unrest in South Africa

Abstract

Protests have severe negative short and long-run impacts on the developing South African economy. They have caused significant increases in costs and losses in productivity for crucial South African industries, leading to declining growth rates and further increases in unemployment and poverty.

The focus of this study was to examine how service delivery, income level, and political satisfaction affect the intensity of unrest in South Africa. Secondary geocoded data from the GDELT project and Afrobarometer was utilised to construct composite indices to analyse the relationships between unrest intensity and its predictors.

In line with the predictions of Frustration-Aggression Theory and studies conducted by Kali (2023), Nleya (2011), and Botes (2018), the study revealed a positive linear relationship between poor service delivery and unrest intensity.

The findings contribute to a better understanding of the complex dynamics between unrest and its determinants. Policymakers and stakeholders can leverage this understanding to address underlying issues effectively and work towards mitigating and reducing socio-political unrest. The study’s framework, utilizing GDELT data, can also be applied to investigate unrest in other countries, benefiting from the broad global coverage provided by GDELT.