Abstract:
This paper discusses emissions and energy modelling in Ethiopia’s transport sector as a
component of the development of a wider cross-sectoral Long-term Low Emissions
Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) for the country. The LT-LEDS is a key requirement of
the Paris Agreement 2015 to which Ethiopia is a signatory. It aims to support growth of key
economic sectors while ensuring the alignment of developmental goals with climate
commitments and environmental sustainability. The transport sector is identified as a key
part of this effort given its significant contribution to GHG emissions and climate change
globally. The main activities involved in developing the low emissions pathways are the
modelling of baseline and mitigation scenarios which capture historic emission and energy
trends in the transport sector and estimates future emissions linked with the growth of the
sector respectively. A bottom-up modelling technique is employed for the study. This
involves collecting and analysing disaggregate transport activity data to provide a
fundamental understanding of transport sector energy consumption and how it affects the
long-term transitions. The results of the scenario building highlight the road sector as the
main contributor to transport sector emissions in the country. This calls for the
implementation of strategies and interventions to reduce emissions and guarantee a
climate friendly and environmentally sustainable growth.
