A cumulative risk and sustainability index for pavements

Abstract

Pavement sustainability is measured using various methodologies which often focus on only certain aspects of sustainability. Methods to quantify and unify holistic sustainability in terms of economic, environmental and social consequences are lacking. In previous papers, the major findings of the contribution of construction, maintenance and use to pavement sustainability were presented. The objective of this paper is to present a method of quantification using a risk and sustainability index that can compare the design and maintenance options of pavement systems. The model utilises Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations applied to a conceptualised influence diagram to determine the probability of sustainability using a cumulative approach. Previously reported results are provided which form the basis of the model, detailing economic, environmental and social results of pavement alternatives, followed by the development of a probability model to quantify holistic pavement sustainability. In conclusion, even though sustainability is complex, simplification through simulation is achievable.