Abstract:
We study whether level of risk aversion can be used to predict Bitcoin returns using copulas and quantile-based
models. We find evidence of predictability when the market return is at extreme quantiles. Further analyses show that
the cross-quantilogram is similar when risk aversion is at the low or medium level for various quantiles of Bitcoin
returns. The predictability is positive when the risk aversion is at very low level. However, predictability becomes
negative when both the risk aversion and Bitcoin returns are very high, suggesting that when risk aversion and Bitcoin
returns are at very high levels, Bitcoin is less likely to have large gains.
