Abstract:
The success of Bitcoin has spurred emergence of countless alternative coins with some
of them shutting down only few weeks after their inception, thus disappearing with millions of
dollars collected from enthusiast investors through initial coin offering (ICO) process. This has led
investors from the general population to the institutional ones, to become skeptical in venturing in
the cryptocurrency market, adding to its highly volatile characteristic. It is then of vital interest to
investigate the life span of available coins and tokens, and to evaluate their level of survivability.
This will make investors more knowledgeable and hence build their confidence in hazarding in the
cryptocurrency market. Survival analysis approach is well suited to provide the needed information.
In this study, we discuss the survival outcomes of coins and tokens from the first release of a
cryptocurrency in 2009. Non-parametric methods of time-to-event analysis namely Aalen Additive
Hazards Model (AAHM) trough counting and martingale processes, Cox Proportional Hazard Model
(CPHM) are based on six covariates of interest. Proportional hazards assumption (PHA) is checked by
assessing the Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival functions at the levels of each covariate. The results
in different regression models display significant and non-significant covariates, relative risks and
standard errors.Among the results, it was found that cryptocurrencies under standalone blockchain
were at a relatively higher risk of collapsing. It was also found that the 2013–2017 cryptocurrencies
release was at a high risk as compared to 2009–2013 release and that cryptocurrencies for which
headquarters are known had the relatively better survival outcomes. This provides clear indicators to
watch out for while selecting the coins or tokens in which to invest.
