Abstract:
Using 39 years of ECMWF renalysis data, an established energetics framework and simple composite analysis this study has shown that South African cut-off low (COL) pressure systems are preceded by downstream development of a baroclinic wave. Downstream development is characterised by the evolution of two energy centres, one located upstream in the midlatitudes and another downstream in the subtropics. The upstream eddy kinetic energy, which is associated with a midlatitude jet streak, develops and reaches its maximum before the formation of the closed COL cyclonic circulation. The downstream eddy kinetic energy centre maximises at the point where the closed circulation forms. The upstream eddy kinetic energy centre grows from baroclinic conversion from eddy available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy, whilst the downstream centre grows by receiving energy by means of ageostrophic geopotential fluxes that transport eddy kinetic energy in a north-eastward direction from the upstream centre. These ageostrophic geopotential fluxes are induced, increased in magnitude and directed by processes associated with Rossby wave breaking (RWB) on the midlatitude dynamical tropopause and so the downstream energy transfer connects South African COLs to midlatitude processes. The study has further shown that the baroclinic kinetic energy configuration previously associated with wet seasons over South Africa is consistent with times when COLs forms over the country.
