System dynamics modelling for sensitivity analysis evaluation of driving factors on decoupled aquaponic systems in South Africa

Abstract

Despite being water and energy proficient, the practice of aquaponics has remained underdeveloped and underutilized in a water scarce society like the Republic of South Africa. As the population of humans on the globe continues to grow geometrically with climate change also being aided, more proficient and safe means of food security premised on water and energy efficiency is becoming the prerogative of governments across different nations. This research has presented a system dynamics model of a decoupled aquaponics system to investigate the sensitivity of parameters in the design of aquaponics systems. Two major driving variables considered in this research include energy and water utilisation for efficient design. A couple of ventilation flow, heating and energy based models were built into the system dynamics model for the conduct of simulation. The results revealed that the top performing countries in respect of energy and water efficiency include locations with hot humid climates such as Brazil, Nigeria and Malaysia. In South Africa, Durban was the best performing city with a peak energy demand of 18.4 MW and a total yearly energy usage of 4550 MW. Durban had a 7.3% higher cumulative energy compared to Brazil. Durban had a net water return of 124.8 ×10^3 m^3. Given the humid and hot climate in the city of Durban, it is considered to be competitively suitable for aquaponics operations. Other regions in South Africa could still be suitable to operate aquaponics systems however, this might be less energy and water efficient. The outcome of this research can be utilized by local governing authorities to ensure sustainable policy design and implementation.