Distribution of Temminck's pangolin (Smutsia temminckii) in South Africa, with evaluation of questionable historical and contemporary occurrence records

Abstract

Temminck's pangolin (Smutsia temminckii) is a threatened mammal found in southern and eastern Africa. It is the most widely distributed African pangolin species yet is listed as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List due to a projected population decline of 30%–40% within the next three generations. This species' secretive, predominantly nocturnal behaviour and generally low population densities make it difficult to directly assess its distribution, and thus, alternative methods are required. Furthermore, many historical and some contemporary records of this species exist from outside of its accepted range, suggesting that the distribution may be greater than currently accepted, although the validity of these records has never been assessed. We used MaxEnt modelling to evaluate the most likely distribution of S. temminckii in South Africa and compared the past and present distribution of the species, as well as assessed the probable validity of the questionable records. Our results suggest that one of the questionable historical museum records is probably valid, while the other may refer to an erroneous collecting locality. At least some contemporary sightings which were originally deemed questionable are probably valid, while others should be treated as dubious until supporting information to validate their authenticity becomes available.