Abstract:
This article aims to identify macroeconomic leading
indicators that influence changes in the listed
property price movements in South Africa and
Nigeria. This serves to improve the quantitative
approaches to investment appraisal in emerging
markets of sub-Saharan Africa. The data relating
to macroeconomic leading indicators, including
Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) Listed
Property (J253) quarterly price data, Nigerian listed
real-estate data, and Macroeconomic indicator
series for Nigeria and South Africa, were collected
from Iress Expert Database, Stats SA, the Central
Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the National Bureau of
Statistics (Nigeria), and the World Bank. The article
identifies that coincident indicators and the exchange
rate have a positive and significant relationship
with the JSE-listed real estate in the South African
market. While the bank lending rate, the consumer
price index, and the Treasury bill rate (TBR) are
identified as reliable indicators in the Nigerian listed
real-estate market. The results show that investors
must pay attention to these indices in their choice of the market(s) within the sub-Saharan African context, as this will guarantee capital
appreciation or growth.
