Optimized lockdown strategies for curbing the spread of COVID-19 : a South African case study

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dc.contributor.author Olivier, Laurentz Eugene
dc.contributor.author Botha, Stefan
dc.contributor.author Craig, Ian Keith
dc.date.accessioned 2021-05-04T08:58:12Z
dc.date.available 2021-05-04T08:58:12Z
dc.date.issued 2020-11
dc.description.abstract To curb the spread of COVID-19, many governments around the world have implemented tiered lockdowns with varying degrees of stringency. Lockdown levels are typically increased when the disease spreads and reduced when the disease abates. A predictive control approach is used to develop optimized lockdown strategies for curbing the spread of COVID-19. The strategies are then applied to South African data. The South African case is of interest as the South African government has defined five distinct levels of lockdown, which serves as a discrete control input. An epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa was previously developed, and is used in conjunction with a hybrid model predictive controller to optimize lockdown management under different policy scenarios. Scenarios considered include how to flatten the curve to a level that the healthcare system can cope with, how to balance lives and livelihoods, and what impact the compliance of the population to the lockdown measures has on the spread of COVID-19. The main purpose of this article is to show what the optimal lockdown level should be given the policy that is in place, as determined by the closed-loop feedback controller. en_ZA
dc.description.department Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineering en_ZA
dc.description.librarian pm2021 en_ZA
dc.description.uri http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/RecentIssue.jsp?punumber=6287639 en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation L. E. Olivier, S. Botha and I. K. Craig, "Optimized Lockdown Strategies for Curbing the Spread of COVID-19: A South African Case Study," in IEEE Access, vol. 8, pp. 205755-205765, 2020, doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3037415. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 2169-3536 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3037415
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/79757
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers en_ZA
dc.rights © This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. en_ZA
dc.subject Epidemiology en_ZA
dc.subject Genetic algorithm en_ZA
dc.subject Hybrid systems en_ZA
dc.subject Model predictive control en_ZA
dc.subject SEIQRDP model en_ZA
dc.subject COVID-19 pandemic en_ZA
dc.subject Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) en_ZA
dc.subject Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) en_ZA
dc.title Optimized lockdown strategies for curbing the spread of COVID-19 : a South African case study en_ZA
dc.type Article en_ZA


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