Disruptive Transport Technologies: Forecasting the Impact on Road-Generated Revenues in South Africa

Abstract

Disruptive transport technologies have been present since the industrial revolution, creating a future that was not directly foreseen, for instance, the invention of the steam locomotive that replaced horse-drawn carts. Modern technological innovations in the transport sector, such as more fuel-efficient vehicles, may have an immediate impact on the amount of road-generated revenue collected through countries’ road funding frameworks. This paper examines the extent to which disruptive transport technologies may impact South Africa’s ability to secure funding for roads in the future. Various road user cost recovery methods’ revenue potential are forecast up to the year 2030 which aligns with the National Development Plan’s horizon year, taking into account the impact of modern-day technological and resulting societal trends that include inter alia improved fuel efficiency, the introduction of electric vehicles, the usage of e-hailing services and policy adoption of greener vehicle technologies. Trend line forecasting and scenario writing are incorporated into this analysis, sourcing data from various government department budgets and research reports. It was found that these technological advancements, although having an impact on road-generated revenue, will rather be incremental in the short to medium terms, and not disruptive as a rule, as companies normally adopt and standardise the latest innovation in the industry over time. The article concludes by proposing that a distance-based road user charging system might be less susceptible to any incremental or disruptive technologies and can be a good mechanism to possibly use in order to apply the user pay principle.