Abstract:
A campaign for malaria control, using Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLINs) was launched
in South Sudan in 2009. The success of such a campaign often depends upon adequate
available resources and reliable surveillance data which help officials understand existing
infections. An optimal allocation of resources for malaria control at a sub-national scale is
therefore paramount to the success of efforts to reduce malaria prevalence. In this paper, we
extend an existing SIR mathematical model to capture the effect of LLINs on malaria transmission.
Available data on malaria is utilized to determine realistic parameter values of this
model using a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Then,
we explore the parasite prevalence on a continued rollout of LLINs in three different settings
in order to create a sub-national projection of malaria. Further, we calculate the model's
basic reproductive number and study its sensitivity to LLINs' coverage and its efficacy. From
the numerical simulation results, we notice a basic reproduction number, R0, confirming a
substantial increase of incidence cases if no form of intervention takes place in the community.
This work indicates that an effective use of LLINs may reduce R0 and hence malaria
transmission. We hope that this study will provide a basis for recommending a scaling-up of
the entry point of LLINs' distribution that targets households in areas at risk of malaria.
