Abstract:
There is considerable debate in the literature over whether or not to legalise the trade in rhino
horns. Here a system dynamics model is developed that considers five components: rhino
abundance, rhino demand, a price model, an income model and a supply model. The results indicate
that income elasticities are much greater than previously observed, while demand is relatively
insensitive to price. At the same time, legalising the trade without income modification policies did
not prevent extinction. The theory of s-curve growth may provide some indications of future growth
patterns of Asian economies. Results suggest that, even though the demand curve for rhino horn
may be downward sloping as conventional theory predicts, non-conventional demand management
strategies may be more effective than price orientated demand curve strategies such as trade
legalisation in curbing supply.
