Abstract:
The spatial system dynamics model (SSDM) of sugarcane industrial ecosystem presented in
this paper is towards an integrated approach to simulate a bio refinery system suggesting
directions for bagasse and trash-derived electricity generation. The model unpacks the
complexity in bio-derived energy generation across the conversion pathways of the system
from land use change, sugarcane production, and harvesting and electricity production amid a
plethora of challenges in the system. Input data for land use and sugarcane production in the
model were derived from remote sensing and spatial analysis. Simulated and validated results
indicate that the alternative scenario of combined bagasse and trash with enhanced
mechanisation and technology efficiency provides the highest efficiency in terms of
electricity generation and emission avoidance compared to the business as usual or base case
scenario. The applied SSDM demonstrates that modelling of feedback-based complex
dynamic processes in time and space provide better insights crucial for decision making. This model provides a foundation for the broader study for cost benefit analysis of electricity
production from a sugarcane industrial ecosystem.
