Politieke risiko-analise as hulpmiddel vir politieke besluitnemers : elektrisiteitsvoorsiening vir Suid-Afrika

Abstract

The objective with this study is to determine if political risk analysis is of value for the political decision-maker and also how political risk can be identified and factored into political decision-making. Electricity supply in South Africa was used to test the assumptions and findings related to political risk and decision-making. Political risk analysis was also not used in the traditional way to determine economic, investment or business risk, but rather to determine if the methods underlying political risk analysis are of any value to political decision-makers in deciding policy and policy-actions. The value of this study lies in determining a systematic and representative body of information and practice on political risk analysis to serve as tool and guideline for political decision-making. Political risk is used in the context of political decision-making, based on informed decision-making with a sensitivity towards forecasting, anticipation and prioritising of decisions. Different approaches to political risk, focussing on effective systems functioning, early warning and traditional political risk analysis were selected. From this a framework for the analysis of policy decisions and actions related to electricity supply in South Africa was developed. The analysis determined that the negative consequences of flawed decisions can be prevented, or can at least be limited if informed decisions are taken, based on an understanding of possible future outcomes and the implications thereof. The study concludes that the analytical framework based on political risk analysis is a valuable tool to assist political decision-makers. The flexible analytical framework developed in this study provides evidence of the value and use of political risk analysis as a tool to assist political decision-makers, that will also have value in policy relevant areas such as the provision of water, youth unemployment, development and education in South Africa.