Abstract:
This paper is an extension and elaboration of previous research on the simulation of three
competing technologies that interact. A modified version of the three-technology system is
investigated, and some initial system dynamics results are reported illustrating the progression
from asymptotic to cyclic behaviour. Technology is considered in this research as a result of
innovation, a rate-dependent process that may include several non-linearities due to interaction
with the environment and social context. Using bibliometrics as a research data source is an
interesting way to trace technology growth patterns very effectively. In this research, the
existence of cyclic behaviour in two real life technologies is illustrated using bibliometrics. In this
paper, a technology systemconsisting of three interacting technologies is treated andmodelled in
a coupled manner where the interacting dynamics is described by the Lotka–Volterra system of
differential equations. The effect of interaction between the technologies and the period of cyclic
behaviour is illustrated parametrically. Furthermore, the possible uncertain diffusion as well as
interaction effect for two of the technologies is also addressed in this research using a Monte Carlo
multivariate simulation technique and a system dynamics approach. The research method is
exploratory and case based.
