Recently added

Working Papers (Economics): Recent submissions

  • Tobacco substitution and the poor 
    Koch, Steven F.; Tshiswaka-Kashalala, Gauthier (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-10)
    Tobacco control policies have effectively raised the price of cigarettes and other tobacco products. However, these price increases have been shown to disproportionately fall upon poorer households, with fewer resources. ...
  • Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market? 
    Gupta, Rangan; Das, Sonali; Kabundi, Alain (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-10)
    This paper develops large-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, based on 268 quarterly series, for forecasting annualized real house price growth rates for large-, medium- and smallmiddle- segment housing ...
  • Child mortality in eastern and southern Africa 
    Koch, Steven F.; Handa, Sudhanshu; Ng, Shu Wen (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-10)
    High rates of infant mortality in Africa continue to be a major public health concern today, despite the fact that most deaths can be prevented from well known, relatively low cost technologies. Using multiple years of ...
  • Forecasting macroeconomic variables in a small open economy : a comparison between small- and large-scale models 
    Gupta, Rangan; Kabundi, Alain (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-09)
    This paper compares the forecasting ability of five alternative models in predicting four key macroeconomic variables, namely, per capita growth rate, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, the money market rate, and ...
  • Optimal public policy with endogenous mortality 
    Gupta, Rangan; Ziramba, Emmanuel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-08)
    Using a monetary pure-exchange overlapping generations model, where the probability of survival of the young agents depends upon share of government expenditure on health, education and infrastructure, we analyze the ...
  • Conditional loss estimation using a South African global error correcting macroeconometric model 
    Van Eyden, Renee; Gupta, Rangan; De Wet, Albertus Hendrik (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-07)
    Active credit portfolio management is becoming a central part of capital and credit management within the banking industry. Stimulated by the Basel II capital accord the estimation of risk sensitive credit and capital ...
  • Costly tax enforcement and financial repression : a reconsideration using an endogenous growth model 
    Gupta, Rangan; Ziramba, Emmanuel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    Using a monetary endogenous growth overlapping generations model characterized by financial repression, purposeful government expenditures and costly tax enforcement, we analyze whether financial repression can be explained ...
  • On health insurance and household decisions : an econometric policy analysis 
    Koch, Steven F.; Alaba, Olufunke A. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-07)
    In developing countries, health insurance is not a commonly purchased financial instrument. Recent debates have revolved around extending health insurance coverage to a wider range of the population, primarily via compulsory ...
  • Exchange rate puzzles : a review of the recent theoretical and empirical developments 
    Gupta, Rangan; Van Eyden, Renee; Mokoena, Thabo Mishack (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-07)
    This paper presents a comprehensive literature review of the theoretical and empirical developments that have taken place over the last two decades in an attempt to address the exchange rate puzzles. Specifically, we ...
  • Finding the optimum level of taxes in South Africa : a balanced budget approach 
    Van Heerden, Yolande; Schoeman, N.J. (Nicolaas Johannes) (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-08)
    The optimum level of government intervention in the economy has been researched extensively internationally but not in South Africa. This paper is primarily concerned with assessing the optimum size of government in terms ...
  • Tax evasion and financial repression : a reconsideration using endogenous growth models 
    Gupta, Rangan; Ziramba, Emmanuel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-05)
    Using two dynamic monetary general equilibrium models characterized by endogenous growth, financial repression and endogenously determined tax evasion, we analyze whether financial repression can be explained by tax ...
  • Testing for PPP using SADC real exchange rates 
    Gupta, Rangan; Van Eyden, Renee; Mokoena, Thabo Mishack (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    This paper attempts to provide evidence indicating that the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) puzzle is becoming less of a puzzle. It present the results of Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) test, nonlinear tests of nonstationarity, ...
  • Half-life deviations from PPP in the SADC 
    Gupta, Rangan; Van Eyden, Renee; Mokoena, Thabo Mishack (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-07)
    This paper utilises various recently developed econometric methods to obtain better approximations to the half-life for real exchange rates of ten South African Development Community (SADC) countries and to generate ...
  • Predicting downturns in US housing market : a Bayesian approach 
    Gupta, Rangan; Das, Sonali (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate), for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1 ...
  • Time aggregation, long-run money demand and the welfare cost of inflation 
    Gupta, Rangan; Uwilingiye, Josine (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-07)
    Two recent studies have found markedly different measures of the welfare cost of inflation in South Africa, obtained through the estimation of long-run money demand relationships using cointegration and long-horizon ...
  • A dynamic factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa 
    Gupta, Rangan; Kabundi, Alain (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    This paper uses the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) framework, which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting the per capita growth rate, inflation, and the nominal shortterm interest ...
  • Openness, bureaucratic corruption and public policy in an endogenous growth model 
    Gupta, Rangan; Ziramba, Emmanuel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    In this paper, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations monetary endogenous growth model of a financially repressed small open economy characterized by bureaucratic corruption, and, in turn, analyze ...
  • Is a DFM well-suited for forecasting regional house price inflation? 
    Gupta, Rangan; Das, Sonali; Kabundi, Alain (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    This paper uses the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) framework, which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting regional house price inflation. As a case study, we use data on house price ...
  • Returns to schooling : skills accumulation or information revelation? 
    Koch, Steven F.; Ntege, S. Ssekabira (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    This paper explores the degree to which imperfect information in the labour market regarding worker quality is likely to impact employment opportunities, as well as the wages associated with those opportunities. The primary ...
  • Measuring the welfare cost of inflation in South Africa : a reconsideration 
    Gupta, Rangan; Uwilingiye, Josine (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    In this paper, using the Fisher and Seater (1993) long-horizon approach, we estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between money balance as a ratio of income and the Treasury bill rate for South Africa over the ...