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Working Papers (Economics): Recent submissions
Now showing items 41-60 of 130
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-08)South Africa, which allowed complete suffrage in 1994, for the first time, has committed itself to improved health outcomes through equitable economic and social development. However, South Africa fares poorly in the World ...
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Effect of defense spending on US output : a factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-03)Empirical evidence on the effect of defense spending on US output is at best mixed. Against this backdrop, this paper assesses the impact of a positive defense spending shock on the growth rate of real GNP using a FAVAR ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-06)Our paper considers the channel whereby monetary policy, a Federal funds rate shock, affects the dynamics of the US housing sector. The analysis uses impulse response functions obtained from a large-scale Bayesian Vector ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-06)We develop an empirical nonlinear model of equilibrium unemployment and test its policy implications for a number of OECD countries. The model here sees the natural rate and the associated equilibrium path of unemployment ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-07)This paper evaluates the welfare gain from reducing inflation permanently from two percent to price stability and compares the output cost associate with this transition. The paper emphasizes the distortions caused by the ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-02)We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in eight Southern California metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). First, we perform cointegration tests of the housing price indexes for the MSAs, finding ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-03)This paper first tests the restrictions implied by Hall’s (1978) version of the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) obtained from a bivariate system of labor income and savings, using quarterly data over the period of 1947:01 ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-02)This paper informs government policy insofar as it relates to the agricultural and rural de- velopment sectors and infrastructure investment within these sectors. The paper first quantifies the role of agriculture in the ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-05)We implement several Bayesian and classical models to forecast housing prices in 20 US states. In addition to standard vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models, we also include the ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-10)This paper derives the econometric restrictions imposed by the Barro and Gordon (1983) model of dynamic time inconsistency on a bivariate time-series model of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and real Gross Domestic ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-12)A Computable General Equilibrium model is used to find the effects of a food voucher scheme on the economy in South Africa. If firms consider the issuing of vouchers as increased remuneration, they will hire fewer ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-01)A simple empirical nonlinear framework is used to analyse monetary policy between 1983 and 2007 in South Africa, focusing on the policy of inflation targeting introduced in Feb 2000, more precisely when the South African ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-02)Recent empirical evidence on the direct link of inflation targeting and inflation volatility is at best mixed. However, comparing inflation volatility across alternative monetary policy regimes within a country based on ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-01)This paper assesses the impact of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), estimated based on a large data set comprising of 246 quarterly series ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-01)We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. First, temporal Granger causality tests reveal that Los Angeles housing prices cause housing prices in Las Vegas ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-02)This paper analyzes the ability of principal component regressions and Bayesian regression methods under Gaussian and double-exponential prior in forecasting the real house price of the United States (US), based on a ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-01)This paper assesses the impact of monetary policy on house price inflation for the nine census divisions of the US economy using a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR), estimated a large data set comprising of 126 quarterly ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-01)This paper analyzes whether a wealth of information contained in 126 monthly series used by large-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (LBVAR) models, as well as Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models, ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-09)The paper uses a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of South Africa and simulates various shocks to the price of electricity. We attempt different closures to the model and compare their respective effects ...
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(University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-10)A large number of child deaths in developing countries could be averted if ill children received care sooner rather than later. However, analysis in these developing countries rarely considers the pathway, through which, ...
Now showing items 41-60 of 130