Huishoudingskuld in Suid-Afrika en die invloed op private verbruiksbesteding (Afrikaans)

Abstract

AFRIKAANS: Die studie ondersoek die verband tussen huishoudingskuld in Suid-Afrika en finale verbruiksbesteding deur huishoudings en daar is bevind dit is 'n wedersydse, moeilik voorspelbare en nie 'n eenvoudige proses nie, omdat verskeie faktore in die ekonomie dit beïnvloed. Die stand van die ekonomie en veral die persepsie van die verbruiker is belangrike faktore. Geld het 'n evolusie ondergaan en minder tasbaar geword as gevolg van krediet. Dit het beheer daarvan moeilik gemaak. Die koste van krediet is 'n geleentheid vir die Sentrale Bank om beheer oor geldskepping uit te oefen. Monetêre beleid skep 'n effektiewe omgewing vir die ekonomie om te funksioneer. Beleid beheer die vraag en aanbod van geld direk (deur rentekoerse) of indirek ( deur vraag- en aanbodfaktore te manipuleer). Geld in die moderne ekonomie verwys na krediet en veral na krediet van huishoudings. Totale uitstaande krediet van huishoudings, en die samestelling daarvan het oor die afgelope 25 jaar aansienlik verander. Dit toon op 'n verandering in die mag van die Sentrale Bank oor die geldskeppingsproses. Bevolkingswelvaart word gemeet aan die vermoë van huishoudings om inkome te bestee. Finale verbruiksbesteding deur huishoudings is die belangrikste deel van totale besteding in die ekonomie. Suid-Afrika klassifiseer finale verbruiksbesteding deur huishoudings volgens die 1993 Stelsel van Nasionale Rekeninge. Verskille tussen die 1993 en 1968 weergawes sluit verskille in ten opsigte van tipe klassifikasie ( doelwit versus duursaamheid) en tussen werklike finale verbruiksbesteding (finale verbruiksbesteding deur huishoudings plus individuele verbruik deur die owerheid) en finale verbruiksbesteding deur huishoudings. Verskillende teorieë bestaan met betrekking tot die effek van rentekoerse, inflasie en finansiële liberalisering op besteding, verbruik oor die lewensiklus, die verbruiksbestedingsfunksie, die verwantskap tussen inkome en besteding en marginale verbruiksbesteding. Die verloop van finale verbruiksbesteding deur huishoudings in Suid¬Afrika oor die afgelope 25 jaar toon dat die samestelling heelwat verander het soos die ekonomie deur verskillende fases gegaan het. Besteding aan duursame en semi-duursame goedere het toenemend gedaal, terwyl besteding aan veral dienste, skerp gestyg het. Die algemene beskikbaarheid van krediet het veroorsaak dat huishoudings al meer op skuld begin leef het gedurende die negentigs. Die gevolgtrekking is dat, in teenstelling met vroeë bevindings, huishoudings nie noodwendig slegs duursame goedere finansier met krediet nie, maar ook nie-duursame goedere en dienste. Die hoë vlakke van krediet en die koste van krediet, het oor die lang termyn 'n negatiewe effek op besteding. Die verband tussen huishoudingskuld in Suid-Afrika en finale verbruiksbesteding deur huishoudings hang af van die faktore wat bestedingsbesluite deur huishoudings beïnvloed, wat monetêre en fiskale beleid insluit. Die toepassing van monetêre beleid werk deur die transmissiemeganisme, wat deur verskeie kanale werk. Die kredietkanaal bestaan uit die balansstaatkanaal en die bankleningskanaal. Die balansstaatkanaal verduidelik die werking van 'n verandering in monetêre beleid op die welvaart van die bevolking. Die bankleningskanaal werk direk deur rentekoerse en banklenings. Verskillende denkskole ondersteun verskillende kanale. Die endogene/eksogene geld vraagstuk lei tot die gevolgtrekking wat gemaak is, dat die voorraad van kredietgeld altyd vraag-bepaald is en dat die aanbod daarvan slegs indirek deur die Sentrale Bank beheer kan word deur die omstandighede in die geldmark (wat rentekoerse affekteer) te verander. ENGLISH: The study investigates the relationship between household debt in South Africa and final consumption expenditure by households and it was found to be an interrelated, difficult process that is not easy to predict, because various factors in the economy influence both. The most important ones are the state of the economy and the perception of the consumer. Money has evolved into something less tangible as a result of credit. That increased the difficulty of control over it. The cost of credit provided an opportunity to the Central Bank to control the creation of money. Monetary policy creates an efficient environment in which the economy can function. Policy control the supply and demand of money directly (through interest rates) or indirectly (through manipulation of the supply and demand factors). Money in the modem economy means credit and specifically credit of households. Total outstanding credit of households and the composition of credit changed dramatically over the last 25 years. This is an indication of a change in the control of the Central Bank over the money creation process. The wealth of the nation is measured by the ability of households to spend income. Final consumption expenditure by households is the most important part of total consumption in the economy. South Africa classifies final consumption expenditure by households according to the 1993 System of National Accounts. Differences between the 1993 and 1968 versions are with respect to type of classification (purpose versus durability) and between actual final consumption and final consumption expenditure by households. There are different theories regarding the effect of interest rates, inflation, financial liberalisation on consumption, consumption over the life-cycle, the consumption function, the relationship between income and consumption and marginal consumption expenditure. The trend in final consumption expenditure by households in South Africa over the last 25 years shows the changes as a result of the different phases of the economy. Consumption of durable and semi-durable goods have decreased continually, while demand for services increased sharply. Households increasingly financed expenditure with credit during the nineties, being the result of the availability of credit. The conclusion is that households not only finance durable goods with credit but also non-durable goods and services, which is contradictory to previous conclusions. The high levels of credit and the cost of credit have a negative effect on consumption over the long term. The relationship between household debt in South Africa and final consumption expenditure is determined by factors that influence decisions about spending, which include monetary and fiscal policy. The influence of monetary policy can be described through the transmission mechanism, that work through different channels. The credit channel consists of the balance sheet channel and the bank lending channel. The balance sheet channel explains the effect of changes in monetary policy on the wealth of the nation. The bank lending channel work through interest rates and bank loans. Different schools of thought support different channels. The exogenous/endogenous money supply debate lead to the conclusion that the supply of credit money is always demand determined and that control by the Central Bank is indirect through the influence of supply and demand conditions in the money market.