Groeistrategie vir boerdery-ondernemings (Afrikaans)

Abstract

Bestuurstrategieë bepaal die tempo van kapitaalakkumulasie onder verski1lende ekonomiese toestande. Strategiese beplanning help bestuur om by 'n vinnig veranderende omgewing aan te pas. Die volgende finansiële komponente het 'n wesentlike invloed op die onderneming se groeivermoë en voortbestaan: winsgewendheid, hoeveelheid vreemde kapitaal gebruik, koste van kapitaal, belastingskoerse en konsumpsiegeneigdheid. Die finansiële risiko wat 'n ondememing kan aanvaar, word hoofsaaklik bepaal deur die vlak van besigheidsrisiko inherent aan ondernemingsbedrywighede. In hierdie studie is die effck van verskillende groeistrategieë op ondernemingsgroei onder dinamiese toestande wat risiko en onsekerheid insluit, bepaal. Netto-waardes en lewenstandaarde was maatstawwe van sukses. 'n Simulasiemodel van die besluitnemingsproses van boerdery-ondernemings is hiervoor gebruik. Die vorige jaar se resultate word evalueer en moontlikhede vir uitbreiding of byhuur word ondersoek. Die jaar se bedryfsplan word gedeeltelik gebaseer op die mate van sukses behaal met diè van die vorige jaar. Alternatiewe planne kan ook opgestel, evalueer en begroot word. Doelwitte, hulpbronbeskikbaarheid, ekonomiese toestande en prys- en opbrengsverwagtings word inkorporeer. Vyf grondverkrygingstrategieë is getoets: (1) Slegs huur; (2) Slegs kontantgrondaankope; (3) Aankoop en huur by elke geleentheid; (4) Aankope slegs elke vyfdejaar; (5) Koop slegs wanneer laste: bate verhouding gunstig is. Ander beheerde veranderlikes was inflasie- en rentekoerse (drie peile); leningsbeperkings (twee peile); bestuursvermoeëns (twee peile) en beginsituasies (twee). Deterministiese en stochastiese modelle is gebruik. In die deterministiese model was pryse en opbrengste konstant. In die stoehastiese model is pryse en opbrengste gefluktueer deur middel van 'n ewekansige getalle generator; elke geval is twintig keer herhaal. Vanuit gegewens van progressiewe boere in Wes-Transvaal is 'n tipiese onderneming gesintetiseer, en kombinasies van beheerde veranderlikes is gesimuleer. Resultate toon dat netto-waarde in 'n groot mate bepaal word deur hoe vinnig die ondernemer grond bekom. Indien insetpryse relatief tot produkpryse toeneem (hoë inflasie) toon ondernemings in die algemeen min of geen reële groei. Matige en aansienlike groei is onderskeidelik onder geen en matige inflasie ondervind. Onder matige inflasie in die deterministiese model het die mees liberale strategie (koop en huur by elke geleentheid) met die konserwatiewe leningsbeperking, die beste resultate gegee. Die kontantaankoopstrategie het onder geen en hoë inflasie met die konserwatiewe leningsbeperking die beste gevaar. In die stochastiese model het kontantaankope met die konserwatiewe leningsbeperking die beste gevaar tydens geen- en matige inflasietoestande (waar prysveranderings die produsent begunstig). Tydens hoë inflasie het die liberale leningsbeperking oorlewing meegebring. Onder hoë inflasie is die beskikbaarheid van kontant, te midde van dalende winsgewendheid van deurslaggewende belang. Korttermynkrediet het vinnig onder hierdie toestande toegeneem. Resultate in die stochastiese model het daarop gedui dat 'n deterministiese ontleding rcsultate in 'n groat mate oorskat. Prys- en opbrengsvariabiliteit neig om die eind netto-waarde aansienlik te verminder. Die simulasiemodel het insiggewende inligting vir beleidsdoeleindes verskaf. Aspekte soos inkomstebelasting, rentekoerse en middeltermynkredietverskaffing kry verdere aandag. ENGLISH : Business strategies determine the rate of capital accumulation under different economic situations. Strategic planning aids management in adjustment to a rapidly changing environment. The following financial components have a substantial effect on the firm's growth potential and survival: profitability; amount of non-equity capital employed, cost of capital, tax rates and propensity to consume. The financial risk that a firm can accept, is mainly determined by the level of business risk inherent in its operations. In this study the effects of different growth strategies on firm growth were determined under dynamic circumstances which include risk and uncertainty. Net worth and living standards were criteria of success. A simulation model of the decisionmaking process in farm firms was used for this purpose. Results of the previous year are evaluated and possibilities for expansion or rent are examined. The year's operational plan is partly determined by the extent of success of the previous year's plan. Alternative plans can also be formulated, evaluated and budgeted. Goals, resource availability, economic circumstances and price and yield expectations are incorporated Five land procurement policies were tested: (1) Only renting; (2) Only cash land purchases; (3) Purchase and rent at every opportunity; ( 4) Purchase every fifth year; (5) Purchase only when debt : asset ratio is favourable. Other controlled variables were inflation and interest rates (three levels); credit limitations (two levels); managerial ability (two levels) and starting situations (two). Deterministic and stochastic models were used. In the deterministic model prices and yields were constant. In the stochastic model a random number generator was used to fluctuate yields and prices; each case was repeated twenty times. From information obtained from progressive farmers in Western Transvaal a typical firm was synthesized and combinations of controlled variables were simulated. Results indicate that net worth is largely determined by the rate at which the operator gains control over land. When input prices increase relative to product prices (high inflation) firms generally show little or no real growth. Moderate and substantial growth occur under no and moderate inflation respectively. Under moderate inflation, using the deterministic model, the most liberal strategy (purchase and rent at every opportunity) with the conservative credit limitation gave best results. The cash purchase strategy with the conservative credit limitation gave the most success under no and high inflation. In the stochastic model cash purchases with the conservative credit limitation fared best during no and moderate inflation circumstances (where price changes favour the producer). During high inflation the liberal credit limitation achieved survival. During high inflation the availability of cash is, in the midst of declining profitability, of decisive importance. Short term credit increased rapidly under these circumstances. Results of the stochastic model suggest that a deterministic· analysis over-estimates results markedly. Price and yield variability tended to decrease the end net worth substantially. The simulation model yielded elucidatory information for policy purposes. Aspects such as income tax, interest rates and medium term credit provision require further attention. Copyright