• The impact of the digital economy and institutional quality in promoting low-carbon energy transition 

  Hwang, Young Kyu; Venter, Alanda (Elsevier, 2025-01)

  Given the threat of climate change, the renewable energy transition will play a pivotal role in reaching net-zero goals. The digital economy and institutional quality are considered key enablers of the rapid deployment of ...
• A causal analysis between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the southern African customs union countries 

  Molepo, Event P.; Jordaan, Andre Cillie (Routledge, 2024)

  This study investigates the direction of causality between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the SACU countries: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Eswatini (Swaziland). The TodaYamamoto augmented Granger ...
• Herding behaviour and monetary policy : evidence from the ZAR market 

  Sibande, Xolani (Elsevier, 2024-06)

  We investigated the presence of herding and its interactions with monetary policy in the ZAR market. We achieved this using both the standard herding tests and Sim and Zhou’s (2015) quantile-on-quantiles regressions. ...
• Forecasting the realized volatility of agricultural commodity prices : does sentiment matter? 

  Bonato, Matteo; Cepni, Oguzhan; Gupta, Rangan; Pierdzioch, Christian (Wiley, 2024-09)

  We analyze the out-of-sample predictive power of sentiment for the realized volatility of agricultural commodity price returns. We use high-frequency intra-day data covering the period from 2009 to 2020 to estimate ...
• Gold market volatility and REITs' returns during tranquil and turbulent episodes 

  Salisu, Afees A.; Akinsomi, Omokolade; Ametefe, Frank Kwakutse; Hammed, Yinka S. (Elsevier, 2024-10)

  We analyze the predictability of REIT returns based on gold market volatility for 11 sectors and five regions. Our findings show higher gains during volatile gold market conditions, but results vary in tranquil and ...
• Migration and inflation nexus under high and low interest rate environments : some panel data evidence 

  Salisu, Afees A.; Muhammad, Rabia Abdul; Saliu, Mojeed O. (Wiley, 2024-12)

  This study analyzes the relationship between migration and inflation as well as the intervening role of interest rates in selected OECD countries from 1995 to 2020, covering periods of turbulence and tranquillity. The ...
• Professor Martin Wittenberg, 1962-2024 

  Dinkelman, Taryn; Kerr, Andrew; Naidoo, Jesse (Wiley, 2025)

  Martin Wittenberg was born in Bethel, Germany, in 1962; he died in Cape Town in 2024. He made major contributions to the intellectual life of South Africa through his scholarship, mentorship and public service. The three ...
• The effect of temperature on household hourly electricity consumption : evidence from South Africa 

  Ye, Yuxiang; Koch, Steven F.; Ye, Xianming (Elsevier, 2025-03)

  Climate change is expected to negatively affect Africa, possibly leading to increased energy needs. However, meeting that need could prove problematic; more than a decade of load-shedding in South Africa is suggestive in ...
• A note on climate change and growth dynamics 

  Gupta, Rangan; Nandnaba, Sarah; Jiang, Wei (Elsevier, 2024-12)

  Climate change is, perhaps, the most important of challenges currently facing humankind, with the potential to have health and welfare implications by imposing a sizeable aggregate risk to the economy. Given this, and in ...
• Sectoral corporate profits and long-run stock return volatility in the United States : a GARCH-MIDAS approach 

  Salisu, Afees A.; Isah, Kazeem O.; Ogbonna, Ahamuefula Ephraim (Wiley, 2025-03)

  This study aims to examine the usefulness of corporate profits in predicting the return volatility of sectoral stocks in the United States. We use a GARCH-MIDAS approach to keep the datasets in their original frequencies. ...
• Threshold effects of economic-policy uncertainty on food security in Nigeria 

  Aye, Goodness Chioma; Kotur, Lydia N.; Ater, Peter I. (MDPI, 2025-02)

  The study investigated the threshold effects of economic-policy uncertainty on food security in Nigeria, covering the period from 1970 to 2021. Summary statistics and unit root tests were employed for preliminary analysis, ...
• Predicting multi-scale positive and negative stock market bubbles in a panel of G7 countries : the role of oil price uncertainty 

  Van Eyden, Renee; Gupta, Rangan; Sheng, Xin; Nielsen, Joshua (MDPI, 2025-02)

  While there is a large body of literature on oil uncertainty-equity prices and/or returns nexus, an associated important question of how oil market uncertainty affects stock market bubbles remains unanswered. In this ...
• Effects of energy consumption, agricultural trade, and productivity on carbon emissions in Nigeria : a quantile regression approach 

  Edoja, Prosper E.; Aye, Goodness Chioma; Gupta, Rangan (MDPI, 2024-12-05)

  The focus of this investigation was to examine the effects of energy consumption, agricultural commerce, and productivity on CO2 emissions in Nigeria using quantile regression. Time series data from 1960 to 2021 were ...
• Forecasting multivariate volatilities with exogenous predictors : an application to industry diversification strategies 

  Luo, Jiawen; Cepni, Oguzhan; Demirer, Riza; Gupta, Rangan (Elsevier, 2025-03)

  We propose a procedure to forecast the realized covariance matrix for a given set of assets within a multivariate heterogeneous autoregressive (MHAR) framework. Utilizing high-frequency data for the U.S. aggregate and ...
• Monetary policy shocks and multi-scale positive and negative bubbles in an emerging country : the case of India 

  Cepni, Oguzhan; Gupta, Rangan; Nel, Jacobus A.; Nielsen, Joshua (SpringerOpen, 2025-01)

  We employ the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity Confidence Indicator (MS-LPPLS-CI) approach to identify positive and negative bubbles in the short-, medium, and long-term for the Indian stock market, using ...
• Multi-task forecasting of the realized volatilities of agricultural commodity prices 

  Gupta, Rangan; Pierdzioch, Christian (MDPI, 2024-09-23)

  Motivated by the comovement of realized volatilities (RVs) of agricultural commodity prices, we study whether multi-task forecasting algorithms improve the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts of 15 agricultural commodities ...
• Digital tools for boosting the impact of fiscal decentralization in Africa's local economies 

  Monkam, Nara F.; Mangwanya, Maonei Gladys (F1000Research, 2024)

  BACKGROUND: Fiscal decentralization offers potential for stimulating local economic development in Africa, empowering subnational governments to control revenue and spending. However, challenges such as urbanization, ...
• Financial uncertainty and gold market volatility : evidence from a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity variant of the mixed-data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) approach with variable selection 

  Chuang, O-Chia; Gupta, Rangan; Pierdzioch, Christian; Shu, Buliao (MDPI, 2024-12)

  We analyze the predictive effect of monthly global, regional, and country-level financial uncertainties on daily gold market volatility using univariate and multivariate GARCH-MIDAS models, with the latter characterized ...
• Climate risks and real gold returns over 750 years 

  Gupta, Rangan; Majumdar, Anandamayee; Pierdzioch, Christian; Polat, Onur (MDPI, 2024-12)

  Using data that cover the annual period from 1258 to 2023, we studied the link between real gold returns and climate risks. We documented a positive contemporaneous link and a negative predictive link. Our findings further ...
• Effect of temperature on the spread of contagious diseases : evidence from over 2000 years of data 

  Balcilar, Mehmet; Mukherjee, Zinnia; Gupta, Rangan; Das, Sonali (MDPI, 2024-12)

  The COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in interest among scholars and public health professionals in identifying the predictors of health shocks and their transmission in the population. With temperature increases becoming ...

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