Political risk assessment for South Africa with reference to the public discourse on the nationalisation of mines

Abstract

The conceptual context and operational architecture of South Africa’s constitutional regime remains a terrain for political contest. The public discourse on the nationalisation of the mining industry is embedded in the theoretical dichotomy of an interventionist vis-á-vis a regulatory state. The outcome of this public contest may have fundamental consequences not only for state-societal relations, but for the durability of the constitutional compromise of the early 1990s which became the dominant master narrative from which the greater good has been dispensed. This article reflects on the statutory framework of the mining industry as well as the legal and constitutional interpretations which are currently contested as part of a public discourse. This discourse is subjected to a risk assessment index of political, economic and social conditions prevailing during July/August 2011, and key indicators of risk for this period is made reference to, in substantiation for the values added in the risk index. The aim of the article is to merge the public contest on nationalisation with the political risks involved in an interventionist state.