The impact of affordability on house price dynamics in South Africa

Abstract

Lately, the residential property market in South Africa has experienced much turbulence. Some perceived growth as a 'property bubble', while others considered it a healthy investment opportunity. This article considers the fundamental drive behind residential property demand and analyses the recent property cycle compared to the past. It also considers the effects of residential property demand on the construction industry. The study investigates the variables that drive property demand and uses methods of statistical fit of historical macro-economic variables to apply to a South African context and to explain recent residential property activity. Research found that residential property demand and subsequent market prices are to a large extent influenced by affordability, which is indicated by capitalising rent as part of disposable income with the prime lending rate of banks. Gross domestic product, as the main indicator of growth within the country, is the main driver of disposable income for households, and can subsequently be used to foresee growth and its effect on affordability and residential property values. The article provides insight into the spending behaviour of households, and shows how that behaviour flows over into spending on housing, and the subsequent influence on residential property values.

Die residensiele eiendomsmark in Suid-Afrika het onlangs baie turbulensies ervaar. Baie het die groei beskou as 'n "eiendoms bubble", terwyl ander dit as 'n goeie beleggingsgeleentheid beskou het. Hierdie studie ondersoek die fundamentele dryfkrag van residensiele eiendomsvraag en analiseer die onlangse eiendomsiklus in vergelyking met die verlede. Die studie ondersoek die veranderlikes wat eiendomsvraag daarstel en gebruik statistiese regressiemetodes om die invloed van makro-ekonomiese veranderlikes op die onlangse residensiele eiendomsmark te bepaal. Navorsing het getoon dat residensiele eiendomsvraag en dienooreenkomstig die markpryse daarvan, grootliks beinvloed word deur bekostigbaarheid, wat aangedui word deur huurbesteding te kapitaliseer deur die prima rentekoers van banke. Bruto binnelandse produk, wat as die vernaamste aanwyser van groei in die land beskou word, is die vernaamste dryfkrag agter besteebare inkomste, en kan gebruik word vir vooruitskattings op groei en die gevolg daarvan op bekostigbaarheid en residensiele eiendomswaardes. Die studie verskaf insig in die bestedingspatrone van huishoudings, en dui aan hoe die algemene besteding ook die besteding op behuising en gevolglik huispryse beinvloed.