How can we move commuters from private to public transport? A case study of car and bus modal choices in Johannesburg

Abstract

Paper presented at the 28th Annual Southern African Transport Conference 6 - 9 July 2009 "Sustainable Transport", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.

One of the main transport policy strategies that government can address to make transport sustainable is to influence private transport users to move from private to public transport. With the high increase in fuel prices over the past year and global warming, sustainable transport, and specifically fuel saving measures, were given new priority by international and local governments.In view of the increased priority locally on sustainable transport, a case study in Johannesburg undertaken to estimate mode choice factors of bus and private transport users in the inner-city areas, is reviewed to assist government on the most significant policy measures they can take to move private transport users to public transport. The study took the form of a stated preference discrete choice study conducted as part of the development of the GTS2000 transport model for Gauteng by the Gauteng Department of Transport, Roads and Public Works.The paper covers the design of the survey and the SP experiments, the main survey results, the calibration results of discrete mode choice models, and sensitivity analysis of the impact of the choice factors on modal split. Finally conclusions are drawn on the most effective and efficient policy measures to achieve a shift in mode choice in favour of public transport.