Assessing the ecological and economic transformation pathways of plastic production system

Abstract

Plastic's incredible versatility drives its continuous production growth, contributing to 4.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With an unsustainable 4% annual production growth rate, plastics' environmental impact is significant. Our study, using climate and economic models, assesses the effects of a voluntary plastic levy imposed on the top 100 resin producers. The results suggest a potential 70% reduction in global plastic production emissions by 2050, lowering emissions from business–as–usual levels to 1.62 Gt CO2e. The proposed USD 82.5 billion levy over 25 years could fund recycling initiatives, increasing recycling rates by 73%. To align with the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C, plastic production growth would need to drop to approximately 2.9%–3.1% annually, achieving a 25% decrease by 2050. Implementing this levy could significantly enhance recycling and reduce emissions, mitigating climate change.