Prediction of creditworthiness of a viable artisanal and small-scale mining operation

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to formulate models for the prediction of creditworthiness of a viable Artisanal and Small-scale Mining (ASM) operation. ASM is a form of mining carried out by mostly informal miners using minimal mechanisation, which affects their level of output and productivity. The use of inefficient tools for extraction and processing also lead to safety, health and environmental hazards. In order reduce the negative tendencies of ASM and still enhance its productivity, formalising and upgrading the operations to a more responsible form of small-scale mining has been recommended by previous studies. However, formal lenders, such as banks, perceive ASM operations as very risky ventures and so they usually avoid investing in such operations. Consequently, the miners have had to settle for informal sources of financing and interventions from governments and international donors. However, these types of funding are usually short-lived, and do not always align with a business-led approach to developing sustainable long-term solutions. There is therefore a need for ASMs to be able access formal sources of funding. This problem necessitates the formulation of models that could assist a formal lender or an accounting officer of a formalised ASM operation to assess the viability of the operations for the purpose of accessing formal lending. In order to achieve the aim of the study, a mixed form of research was carried out involving qualitative and quantitative research. A selective survey design was adopted for the study and Southwest Nigeria was selected for the research owing to the region’s richness in all the mineral categories usually targeted by ASM operators. The government ministry that regulates ASM was contacted with a view to obtain a list of ASM cooperatives and associations. The heads of these cooperatives and associations were then interviewed to provide their perspectives on the credit constraints in the industry. Also, a formal lender, which is a government-owned development finance bank (Nigeria Bank of Industry, BOI) that lends to ASM operations was contacted for qualitative study. The aim is to acquire the bank’s parameters for estimating creditworthiness of a competent loan application from an ASM borrower. The major parameters include: the licensing status of the operation; availability of loan guarantee in form of physical collateral or a guarantor to stand as surety; ability to afford the bank’s interest rate; membership of the mine operator in a registered cooperative society; availability of feasibility study report; and availability of ore reserve estimate. Based on the parameters obtained from the bank, a well-structured questionnaire was developed and was used to conduct quantitative research on a sample of 100 ASM respondents (one respondent per operation). Analysis of the research data was done using R programming language on RStudio which helped to develop simple and multiple regression models for creditworthiness of a viable ASM operation. The key findings from the study were duly presented based on descriptive and inferential statistics. The study recommends among others that future study direction should consider modifying, scaling, and improving available models for proving the viability of ASM operations.