Abstract:
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction has gained momentum in the recent
past as a need for predictions between the weather forecasting timescale and
seasonal timescale exists. The availability of S2S databases makes prediction
and predictability studies possible over all the regions of the globe. Most S2S
studies are, however, relevant to the northern hemisphere. In this review, the
S2S literature relevant to the southern hemisphere (SH) are presented. Predictive
skill, sources of predictability, and the application of S2S predictions are
discussed. Indications from the subseasonal predictability studies for the SH
regions suggest that predictive skill is limited to 2 weeks in general, particularly
for temperature and rainfall, which are the variables most frequently
investigated. However, temperature has enhanced skill compared to rainfall.
More S2S prediction studies that include the quantification of the sources of
predictability and the identification of windows of opportunity need to be conducted
for the SH, particularly for the southern African region. The African
continent is vulnerable to weather- and climate-related disasters, and S2S forecasts
can assist in alleviating the risk of such disasters.
