Browsing Working Papers (Economics) by Title

Browsing Working Papers (Economics) by Title

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  • A new-Keynesian DSGE model for forecasting the South African economy 
    Gupta, Rangan; Liu, Guangling; Schaling, Eric (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-04)
    This paper develops a New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) Model for forecasting the growth rate of output, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate (91-days Treasury Bills rate) for ...
  • Nonlinear tax elasticities and their implications for the structural balance 
    Jooste, Charl; Naraidoo, Ruthira (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-10)
    Research on tax elasticities in South Africa mainly employs linear models and shows that taxes evolve symmetrically irrespective of the economic cycle. This study extends this research to show that taxes behave asymmetrically ...
  • On health insurance and household decisions : an econometric policy analysis 
    Koch, Steven F.; Alaba, Olufunke A. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-07)
    In developing countries, health insurance is not a commonly purchased financial instrument. Recent debates have revolved around extending health insurance coverage to a wider range of the population, primarily via compulsory ...
  • On the real exchange rate effects of higher electricity prices in South Africa 
    Blignaut, James Nelson; Jordaan, Andre Cillie; Van Heerden, J.H. (Jan Horn), 1957- (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-09)
    The paper uses a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of South Africa and simulates various shocks to the price of electricity. We attempt different closures to the model and compare their respective effects ...
  • Openness, bureaucratic corruption and public policy in an endogenous growth model 
    Gupta, Rangan; Ziramba, Emmanuel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    In this paper, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations monetary endogenous growth model of a financially repressed small open economy characterized by bureaucratic corruption, and, in turn, analyze ...
  • Optimal monetary policy reaction function in a model with target zones and asymmetric preferences for South Africa 
    Naraidoo, Ruthira; Raputsoane, Leroi Jeremia (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-03)
    This paper estimates the optimal monetary authorities’ response to deviations of inflation and output from their target values for South Africa over the inflation targeting era. This is achieved using an empirical framework ...
  • Optimal monetary policy reaction function in a model with target zones and asymmetric preferences for South Africa 
    Naraidoo, Ruthira; Ndahiriwe, Kasai (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-03)
    In this paper we provide an in-sample assessment of how the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) sets policy rate in the context of both linear and nonlinear Taylor type rule models of monetary policy. Given the controversial ...
  • Optimal public policy with endogenous mortality 
    Gupta, Rangan; Ziramba, Emmanuel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-08)
    Using a monetary pure-exchange overlapping generations model, where the probability of survival of the young agents depends upon share of government expenditure on health, education and infrastructure, we analyze the ...
  • Pattern of interdependence of aggregate FDI from the same source country 
    Kemegue, Francis M. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-12)
    This paper explores the possibility that monitoring resources explain the clustering in space of aggregate FDI from the same source country. Theoretically, the paper shows that independently of any institutional incentive ...
  • Polarisation, populism and hyperinflation[s] : some evidence from Latin America 
    Bittencourt, Manoel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-09)
    We test for the populist view of state capture in Latin America between 1970 and 2003. The empirical results based on the relatively novel panel time-series data and analysis confirm the prediction that recently-elected ...
  • Predicting downturns in US housing market : a Bayesian approach 
    Gupta, Rangan; Das, Sonali (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate), for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1 ...
  • Quantifying the potential of restored natural capital to alleviate poverty and help conserve nature : a case study from South Africa 
    Blignaut, James Nelson; Moolman, Christina Elizabeth (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2006-02)
    The question addressed in this chapter is whether a community conservation initiative (coupled with the restoration of degraded land) can be considered a feasible alternative land use option compared to subsistence ...
  • R&D, openness, and growth 
    Gupta, Rangan; Chen, Pei-Pei (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2006-12)
    Recent studies have pointed out that trade liberalisation leads to technological spillovers, which, in turn, tend to improve the efficiency of the domestic Research and Development (R&D) sector, and ultimately boost ...
  • Returns to schooling : skills accumulation or information revelation? 
    Koch, Steven F.; Ntege, S. Ssekabira (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    This paper explores the degree to which imperfect information in the labour market regarding worker quality is likely to impact employment opportunities, as well as the wages associated with those opportunities. The primary ...
  • “Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Phoenix 
    Gupta, Rangan; Miller, Stephen M. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-01)
    We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. First, temporal Granger causality tests reveal that Los Angeles housing prices cause housing prices in Las Vegas ...
  • Role of governance in explaining domestic investment in Nigeria 
    Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-03)
    This study empirically examines the pattern of domestic investment that is consistent with a neoclassical supply-side model of the Nigerian economy. The estimations are carried out with time-series data from 1970 to 2006 ...
  • Semiparametric stochastic frontier analysis of specialist surgeon clinics 
    Koch, Steven F.; Slabbert, Jean D. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-09)
    A purposive sample of South African specialist surgeons was used to nonparametrically estimate production relations for single output and multiple output production processes. The analysis was further extended to ...
  • Should the SARB have stayed time inconsistent? 
    Gupta, Rangan; Uwilingiye, Josine (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-10)
    This paper derives the econometric restrictions imposed by the Barro and Gordon (1983) model of dynamic time inconsistency on a bivariate time-series model of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and real Gross Domestic ...
  • Social ingredients and conditional convergence in the study of sectoral growth 
    Van Eyden, Renee; Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe; Du Toit, Charlotte Barbara (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-12)
    In this research article, we investigate the improved modelling ability and the outstanding policy advocacy of infusing health and education in sectoral growth equations of the South African economy. Our findings not only ...
  • Some benefits of reducing inflation in South Africa 
    Gupta, Rangan; Uwilingiye, Josine (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-07)
    This paper evaluates the welfare gain from reducing inflation permanently from two percent to price stability and compares the output cost associate with this transition. The paper emphasizes the distortions caused by the ...