Abstract:
Infectious and zoonotic disease outbreaks have been linked to increasing volumes of legal and
illegal trade. Spatio-temporal and trade network analyses have been used to evaluate the risks
associated with these challenges elsewhere, but few details are available for the pig sector in
South Africa. Regarding pig diseases, Limpopo province is important as the greater part of the
province falls within the African swine fever control area. Emerging small-scale pig farmers
in Limpopo perceived pig production as an important means of improving their livelihood
and an alternative investment. They engage in trading and marketing their products with a
potential risk to animal health, because the preferred markets often facilitate potential longdistance
spread and disease dispersal over broad geographic areas. In this study, we explored
the interconnectedness of smallholder pig farmers in Limpopo, determined the weaknesses and
critical control points, and projected interventions that policy makers can implement to reduce
the risks to pig health. The geo-coordinates of surveyed farms were used to draw maps, links
and networks. Predictive risks to pigs were determined through the analyses of trade networks,
and the relationship to previous outbreaks of African swine fever was postulated. Auction
points were identified as high-risk areas for the spread of animal diseases. Veterinary authorities
should prioritise focused surveillance and diagnostic efforts in Limpopo. Early disease detection
and prompt eradication should be targeted and messages promoting enhanced biosecurity
to smallholder farmers are advocated. The system may also benefit from the restructuring of
marketing and auction networks. Since geographic factors and networks can rapidly facilitate
pig disease dispersal over large areas, a multi-disciplinary approach to understanding the
complexities that exist around the animal disease epidemiology becomes mandatory.
