Abstract:
Forecasts of a Global Coupled Model for Austral summer with a 1-month lead are
downscaled to end-of-season maize yields and accumulated streamflow over the Limpopo
Province and adjacent districts in northeastern South Africa through application of a MOS
(Model Output Statistics) approach applied over a 28-year period. Promising results, based on the hindcasts of the Global Models and historically observed yield and streamflow data,
suggest potential for a commodity-orientated forecast system for application in agriculture in
an operational environment. It also serves as a baseline study for inclusion of sophisticated
crop or runoff models utilising GCM output data towards estimating potential yields and
streamflows in the region.
