Modelling the impacts of the industrial biofuels strategy on the South African agricultural and biofuel subsectors

Abstract

The potential impact of the current South African industrial biofuels strategy on the economic feasibility of biofuel production in South Africa is analysed and discussed. The analysis is then taken a step further by means of a scenario to analyse the potential impacts of higher global prices on the feasibility of a local biofuel industry. The BFAP sector model, a partial equilibrium model, is used to simulate the various impacts over the period 2009 to 2017. This study shows that the incentives and commitments, as presented through the strategy, are not sufficient to get a local biofuel industry up and running and make it sustainable in the long term.