Climate change scenario simulations over Eritrea by using a fine resolution limited area climate model : temperature and moisture sensitivity

Abstract

The climate of the eastern section of the Sahelian latitude, especially over the Eritrean subdomain, is often associated with long drought episodes from which the atmospheric mechanisms are poorly understood. In an effort to improve our knowledge of weather and climate systems over this region, the PRECIS Regional Climate Model (RCM) from the United Kingdom (UK) was obtained and implemented. Such a climate model that is based upon the physical laws of nature has the ability to simulate regional-scale atmospheric patterns, and therefore, may significantly contribute to our understanding of local atmospheric processes. In this dissertation the assessment of past regional climate trends from both observations and model simulations, and the simulation of scenarios for possible future climate change were regarded as important. To investigate this, the PRECIS RCM was first nested over the Eritrean domain into the “atmosphere only” HadAM3H global General Circulation Model (GCM) and forced at its lateral boundaries by a 30-year present-day (1961-1990) integration of the same global model. Secondly, the PRECIS RCM was constrained at its lateral boundary by the “fully coupled” HadCM3 GCM (for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice) and its improved atmospheric component (HadAM3H GCM). The latter simulations provided boundary conditions for the A2 and B2 future emission scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)) to simulate a 20-year (2070-2090) projection of future climate. These experiments allowed for verification of both spatial and temporal present-day climate simulations, as well as possible future climate trends as simulated by the PRECIS RCM over the Eritrean domain, with specific emphasis on temperature and moisture related variables. The study indicates that PRECIS RCM climate simulations are mostly in harmony with observed spatial patterns. This skill may be attributed to the full representation of the climatic system (land surface, sea, ice, atmosphere and atmospheric chemistry such as sulphur and greenhouse gasses) in the model configuration. However, when comparing PRECIS RCM results with the much coarser resolution (2.5ox2.5o) National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, obvious differences do occur. These differences are not necessarily the result of poor model performance, but may be attributed to more detailed simulations over the finer RCM grid (0.44o x 0.44o). Future climate scenario simulation with the PRECIS RCM over Eritrea produce increased surface temperature in both the A2 and B2 SRES scenario integrations, relative to the present climatology. This temperature increase also appears in the driving GCM (HadCM3) as well as in other GCM results from the Inter Governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) initiative. There are, however, mixed signals in rainfall projections. According to PRECIS RCM results, rainfall is expected to increase in most of the Eritrean region. Copyright 2005, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. Please cite as follows: Beraki, A F 2005, Climate change scenario simulations over Eritrea by using a fine resolution limited area climate model : temperature and moisture sensitivity , MSc dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd < http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-02102006-152327 / >